Thu, Dec 21, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 9
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 210 | 15 | 012 | 327 |
| BUF | 313 | 310 | 311 | 934 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Connor Clifton, Zach Benson · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 7:28TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 12:39TORMax DomiPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 13:44BUFOwen PowerAssists: Zach Benson, Casey Mittelstadt · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P1 15:51BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 4:44BUFRasmus DahlinPPGWGAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 5:42TORCalle JarnkrokSHAssists: William Nylander, Timothy Liljegren · Slap, 0.13 xG3–4
- P2 8:22BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Alex Tuch, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–5
- P2 11:04BUFKyle OkposoSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 11:08BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Connor Clifton · Snap, 0.35 xG3–7
- P3 12:23BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.20 xG3–8
- P3 15:02BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Peyton Krebs, Ryan Johnson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–9
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:12BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P1 11:51BUFJack Quinn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 0:22BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:42TORSimon Benoit: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:34TORNoah Gregor: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:16BUFJack Quinn: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:56TORJake McCabe: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:35TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 18:55TORMax Domi: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies9:24
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann8:38
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson8:16
xG 0.02–0.55 (3%)attempts 4–9goals 0–2
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner10:24
xG 0.11–0.99 (10%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly2:18
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit6:55
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 8–6goals 0–3
- Brodie – McCabe14:22
xG 0.43–1.13 (28%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka9:10
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson10:06
xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Krebs7:08
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson9:40
xG 0.52–0.38 (58%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Power12:03
xG 1.39–0.50 (74%)attempts 18–10goals 3–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin14:34
xG 0.83–0.30 (73%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Johnson – Johnson7:15
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).