Wed, Dec 27, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 214 | 210 | 430 |
| TOR | 212 | 08 | 016 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 6:04TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 10:17OTTParker KellySHAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 14:25OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 3:44OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 17:33OTTBrady TkachukENAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:03TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:55OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:36OTTJosh Norris: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:33OTTJosh Norris: Interference2 min
- P3 3:22OTTRidly Greig: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:22TORWilliam Lagesson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestKastelic – Kelly – Smejkal5:36
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk12:41
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Crookshank – Greig6:05
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Batherson – Stützle11:37
xG 0.88–1.15 (43%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:20
xG 0.83–0.59 (59%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Chychrun – Zub3:01
xG 0.04–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker10:35
xG 0.50–0.67 (42%)attempts 9–19goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:20
xG 1.01–0.34 (75%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson7:23
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann6:35
xG 0.09–0.32 (22%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies14:20
xG 0.84–1.15 (42%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Liljegren15:56
xG 1.21–0.50 (71%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Lagesson – Benoit9:28
xG 0.03–0.22 (13%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly14:19
xG 0.57–1.07 (35%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).