Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Nashville Predators 4, Detroit Red Wings 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 114 | 212 | 19 | 02 | 437 |
| DET | 212 | 04 | 26 | 11 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02DETDylan LarkinSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 10:43NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 19:38DETJake WalmanAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Robby Fabbri · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 11:40NSHGustav NyquistSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 13:49NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 9:29DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: J.T. Compher, Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 11:13DETJake WalmanAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 12:24NSHGustav NyquistAssists: Filip Forsberg, Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 2:13DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Jake Walman · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:30DETLucas Raymond: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26NSHPhilip Tomasino: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:11NSHDante Fabbro: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:07NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:07DETJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:07DETJ.T. Compher: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:07NSHRoman Josi: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:07DETAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg11:13
xG 0.97–0.39 (71%)attempts 16–14goals 2–1
- Novak – Glass – Parssinen3:09
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Evangelista2:06
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith3:52
xG 0.34–0.22 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro13:48
xG 1.52–0.27 (85%)attempts 21–15goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Schenn11:07
xG 1.03–0.14 (88%)attempts 24–5goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Carrier2:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Compher – DeBrincat10:07
xG 0.32–0.16 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Sprong – Czarnik – Berggren5:14
xG 0.21–0.39 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Copp – Fabbri – Rasmussen8:46
xG 0.70–1.11 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Perron – Larkin – Raymond14:38
xG 0.33–0.78 (29%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Walman – Seider15:14
xG 0.72–0.74 (50%)attempts 21–17goals 2–1
- Maatta – Gostisbehere11:47
xG 0.39–0.96 (29%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot17:50
xG 0.32–1.24 (21%)attempts 14–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).