Sat, Dec 30, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 19 | 111 | 18 | 328 |
| TOR | 011 | 010 | 26 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:24CARMichael BuntingPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 13:52CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–0
- P3 4:16TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Max Domi, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:05CARSebastian AhoENGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.71 xG3–1
- P3 19:50TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi, Timothy Liljegren · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:47TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:55CARDmitry Orlov: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:53CARMartin Necas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:53TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:42CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Holding2 min
- P2 13:40TORMax Domi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:10TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:07CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:45TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Bunting – Kotkaniemi2:43
xG 0.14–0.01 (94%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Fast – Noesen – Drury2:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis11:46
xG 0.33–0.28 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Noesen – Necas – Drury5:56
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:56
xG 0.40–0.32 (55%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield12:38
xG 0.39–0.53 (42%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce13:56
xG 0.34–0.50 (41%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:12
xG 0.76–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies11:11
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson7:11
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Gregor – Holmberg – McMann7:36
xG 0.04–0.30 (13%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly12:45
xG 1.26–0.17 (88%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- McCabe – Liljegren2:38
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Giordano – Liljegren10:01
xG 0.19–0.31 (39%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).