Thu, Jan 11, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 08 | 211 | 328 |
| BUF | 310 | 18 | 114 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:14BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 15:06OTTVladimir TarasenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 17:28BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P1 19:32BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 4:52BUFPeyton KrebsGWGAssists: Eric Robinson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 0:43OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Ridly Greig · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 11:15OTTClaude GirouxUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 19:57BUFDylan CozensENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:12OTTMark Kastelic: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:35BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:08OTTDominik Kubalik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:41BUFRyan Johnson: Interference2 min
- P2 9:46BUFZemgus Girgensons: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:39BUFRasmus Dahlin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:32OTTMathieu Joseph: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Tarasenko – Kubalik – Joseph4:26
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Greig10:11
xG 0.44–0.46 (49%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Batherson – Kelly – Stützle6:53
xG 0.22–0.27 (44%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Joseph – Batherson – Stützle4:45
xG 0.01–0.11 (5%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub13:22
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 18–7goals 1–1
- Bernard-Docker – Sanderson2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker4:08
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Robinson – Krebs7:12
xG 0.84–0.13 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Okposo – Greenway – Benson7:31
xG 0.55–0.04 (94%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Mittelstadt8:11
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka9:49
xG 0.08–0.51 (14%)attempts 4–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Power6:30
xG 0.60–0.11 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin14:33
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
- Dahlin – Power2:37
xG 0.05–0.02 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).