Thu, Jan 18, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Minnesota Wild 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 111 | 210 | 012 | 333 |
| TBL | 111 | 314 | 313 | 738 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:17MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Brock Faber, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:12TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 0:16TBLAnthony CirelliPPAssists: Brayden Point, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 3:20TBLWaltteri MerelaAssists: Conor Sheary, Nick Perbix · Snap, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 10:52MINMarco RossiAssists: Jake Middleton, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 12:41TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P2 19:45MINJake MiddletonAssists: Marco Rossi, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 1:09TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 6:59TBLMichael EyssimontPPAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.28 xG3–6
- P3 17:52TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 18:16MINBrock Faber: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:16TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:16MINBrock Faber: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:00MINMarcus Johansson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:53TBLTyler Motte: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:45MINKirill Kaprizov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:44TBLCalvin de Haan: Cross checking2 min
- P3 12:44MINMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:44TBLCalvin de Haan: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi13:32
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
- Maroon – Duhaime – Dewar8:51
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy8:02
xG 0.43–0.77 (36%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau8:22
xG 0.07–0.50 (12%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMermis – Hunt13:03
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Middleton – Faber14:32
xG 0.71–1.14 (38%)attempts 15–18goals 3–2
- Bogosian – Brodin20:02
xG 0.34–0.98 (26%)attempts 17–25goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point14:13
xG 1.61–0.66 (71%)attempts 24–19goals 2–0
- Motte – Sheary – Eyssimont8:09
xG 0.32–0.11 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel12:12
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 13–8goals 1–3
- Watson – Glendening – Merela6:36
xG 0.03–0.57 (4%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh14:45
xG 1.67–0.83 (67%)attempts 24–19goals 3–0
- Crozier – Lilleberg14:31
xG 0.30–0.11 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg2:14
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).