Thu, Jan 18, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 316 | 09 | 432 |
| CGY | 211 | 110 | 05 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:52CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:23CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 18:24TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Noah Gregor, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 4:08TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 7:44TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 13:39TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Matthew Knies, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 17:53CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:56TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:11TORMorgan Rielly: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52CGYA.J. Greer: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 5:52TORSimon Benoit: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 7:20CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:17TORTimothy Liljegren: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 18:56CGYElias Lindholm: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Domi – Knies3:52
xG 0.42–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Holmberg9:44
xG 0.41–0.37 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews4:08
xG 0.03–0.07 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Knies3:34
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren8:26
xG 0.76–0.64 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Rielly – Liljegren2:03
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit15:50
xG 0.69–0.93 (43%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane15:15
xG 0.92–0.55 (62%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary3:23
xG 0.36–0.05 (87%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka4:29
xG 0.05–0.03 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kadri – Ruzicka – Zary5:55
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin20:00
xG 1.28–0.71 (64%)attempts 19–20goals 1–0
- Weegar – Andersson20:21
xG 1.04–1.15 (48%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
- Oesterle – DeSimone8:16
xG 0.09–0.66 (12%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).