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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 20, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Vancouver Canucks 6

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

4

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.

VAN winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR09318119446
VAN391626621

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 3:06VANNils HoglanderAssists: Sam Lafferty, Quinn Hughes · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:00VANNils HoglanderAssists: Nils Aman, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
  3. P1 12:58VANConor GarlandAssists: Teddy Blueger, Dakota Joshua · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
  4. P2 4:53TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
  5. P2 7:26TORJake McCabeAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P2 8:19TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
  7. P2 19:00VANConor GarlandAssists: Teddy Blueger · Snap, 0.30 xG3–4
  8. P3 3:13TORMitch MarnerSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–4
  9. P3 7:11VANJ.T. MillerPPGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson · Deflected, 0.12 xG4–5
  10. P3 10:42VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–6
Penalties (16)
  1. P1 6:31VANNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
  2. P2 11:49VANQuinn Hughes: Cross checking2 min
  3. P2 11:49VANFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
  4. P2 11:49TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
  5. P3 2:51TORTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
  6. P3 6:19TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  7. P3 9:50TORMark Giordano: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P3 11:20VANFilip Hronek: High sticking2 min
  9. P3 14:03TORCalle Jarnkrok: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 14:03TORCalle Jarnkrok: Cross checking2 min
  11. P3 14:03VANPius Suter: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 14:03VANPius Suter: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 18:31VANQuinn Hughes: Cross checking2 min
  14. P3 19:33VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
  15. P3 19:33VANTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 19:33TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
46% to win54% to win
← TOR attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Miller
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORVAN
46Shots on goal21
3.0Expected goals2.1
77Shot attempts50
34Faceoffs won21
5Power plays3
14Penalty minutes18
40Hits52
14Blocked shots19
7Giveaways2
4Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestMarner – Matthews – Holmberg8:18

    xG 0.44–0.03 (95%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0

  2. Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander8:45

    xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0

  3. Jarnkrok – Marner – Matthews2:46

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  4. Gregor – Kampf – McMann4:39

    xG 0.07–0.07 (52%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcCabe – Liljegren9:56

    xG 0.68–0.13 (84%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0

  2. Giordano – Benoit5:11

    xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0

  3. McCabe – Benoit4:55

    xG 0.11–0.05 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland8:18

    xG 0.58–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 2–1

  2. Suter – Mikheyev – Kuzmenko6:59

    xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

  3. Lafferty – Hoglander – Aman6:29

    xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0

  4. Miller – Boeser – Pettersson9:42

    xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestHronek – Hughes12:44

    xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0

  2. Cole – Zadorov9:30

    xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0

  3. Zadorov – Hronek4:11

    xG 0.11–0.16 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.1 xGTOR 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 96/100 · #63 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.04 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +25 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.

VAN winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).