Tue, Jan 23, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 5, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 17 | 425 | 06 | 538 |
| DET | 212 | 07 | 215 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Thomas Harley, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 14:33DETDavid PerronPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 16:53DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 0:22DALMason MarchmentAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 4:35DALRoope HintzAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 11:40DALEsa LindellAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P2 15:12DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Wyatt Johnston · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 11:28DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
- P3 16:46DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin · Snap, 0.21 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:10DETDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 5:10DETJeff Petry: Holding2 min
- P1 12:33DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:54DALJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:53DALTy Dellandrea: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 19:21DALJoel Hanley: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston11:11
xG 1.18–0.29 (81%)attempts 19–7goals 3–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel10:03
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:14
xG 0.53–0.66 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Faksa – Dellandrea11:07
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell15:02
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Suter – Harley3:50
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist12:26
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fischer – Rasmussen11:04
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Compher – Fabbri – DeBrincat2:12
xG 0.09–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond3:28
xG 0.04–0.02 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perron – Compher – Fabbri3:54
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gostisbehere14:40
xG 0.73–0.63 (54%)attempts 18–15goals 0–2
- Walman – Seider12:23
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Petry – Maatta16:12
xG 0.39–0.73 (35%)attempts 21–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).