Wed, Jan 31, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 29 | 06 | 12 | 325 |
| DET | 13 | 011 | 111 | 00 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:57DETDaniel SprongAssists: Joseph Veleno · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:09OTTMark KastelicAssists: Jacob Bernard-Docker, Parker Kelly · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:32OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 11:15DETDylan LarkinAssists: J.T. Compher, Olli Maatta · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 2:05OTTShane PintoGWGAssists: Thomas Chabot, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:22DETChristian Fischer: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:01DETMichael Rasmussen: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:25OTTBrady Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:50DETChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Pinto – Greig10:55
xG 1.08–0.34 (76%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk8:51
xG 0.58–0.32 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly6:12
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle10:08
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Bernard-Docker6:23
xG 0.48–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Bernard-Docker2:27
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Chabot – Chychrun11:37
xG 0.94–0.91 (51%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Fischer – Rasmussen12:29
xG 0.76–0.44 (63%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond14:03
xG 0.49–0.69 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Sprong – Kostin – Veleno6:34
xG 0.09–0.47 (16%)attempts 2–11goals 1–1
- Perron – Compher – Fabbri10:00
xG 0.06–0.71 (8%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider17:49
xG 0.83–0.41 (67%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Petry – Maatta16:38
xG 0.73–0.74 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Holl – Gostisbehere12:01
xG 0.14–1.09 (11%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).