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Ice Lab

Wed, Jan 31, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

Ottawa Senators 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 71% of the time.

DET winsOTT wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:23Shot by Giroux, saved by Lyon
  3. P1 0:37Shot by Maatta, saved by Korpisalo
  4. P1 4:01Shot by Norris, saved by Lyon
  5. P1 6:51Shot by Batherson, saved by Lyon
  6. P1 8:57Goal by Sprong (Veleno)+17 pts WP

    On ice: DET Walman, Sprong, Kostin, Veleno, Seider · OTT Giroux, Joseph, Brannstrom, Bernard-Docker, Stützle

  7. P1 9:43Shot by Larkin, saved by Korpisalo
  8. P1 10:22Fischer: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Petry, Maatta, Copp, Fischer, Rasmussen · OTT Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk, Sanderson, Zub

  9. P1 12:37Shot by Chychrun, saved by Lyon
  10. P1 15:56Shot by Kelly, saved by Lyon
  11. P1 18:01Rasmussen: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: DET Petry, Maatta, Copp, Fischer, Rasmussen · OTT Tarasenko, Brannstrom, Pinto, Greig, Zub

  12. P1 18:08Shot by Pinto, saved by Lyon4v5
  13. P1 18:30Shot by Pinto, saved by Lyon4v5
  14. P1 19:31Shot by Giroux, saved by Lyon4v5
  15. P1 0:00Period end4v5
  16. P2 0:00Period start
  17. P2 0:46Shot by Walman, saved by Korpisalo
  18. P2 1:45Shot by Copp, saved by Korpisalo
  19. P2 1:50Shot by Copp, saved by Korpisalo
  20. P2 2:20Shot by Greig, saved by Lyon
  21. P2 2:22Shot by Pinto, saved by Lyon
  22. P2 2:54Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Lyon
  23. P2 3:09Goal by Kastelic (Bernard-Docker, Kelly)+20 pts WP

    On ice: DET Holl, Gostisbehere, Sprong, Kostin, Veleno · OTT Chychrun, Kastelic, Kelly, Bernard-Docker, Greig

  24. P2 5:49Shot by Larkin, saved by Korpisalo
  25. P2 7:30Shot by Kelly, saved by Lyon
  26. P2 7:41Shot by Chychrun, saved by Lyon
  27. P2 9:38Shot by Tarasenko, saved by Lyon
  28. P2 10:30Shot by Holl, saved by Korpisalo
  29. P2 11:00Shot by Fischer, saved by Korpisalo
  30. P2 11:01Shot by Fischer, saved by Korpisalo
  31. P2 11:02Shot by Fischer, saved by Korpisalo
  32. P2 11:05Shot by Copp, saved by Korpisalo
  33. P2 12:25Tkachuk: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Larkin, Walman, DeBrincat, Seider, Raymond · OTT Chabot, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk, Bernard-Docker

  34. P2 14:32Goal by Tkachuk (Pinto)+21 pts WP

    On ice: DET Fabbri, Sprong, DeBrincat, Veleno, Seider · OTT Chabot, Norris, Tkachuk, Bernard-Docker, Pinto

  35. P2 17:37Shot by Copp, saved by Korpisalo
  36. P2 18:13Shot by Sprong, saved by Korpisalo
  37. P2 18:40Shot by Chabot, saved by Lyon
  38. P2 0:00Period end
  39. P3 0:00Period start
  40. P3 3:15Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Lyon
  41. P3 6:11Shot by Petry, saved by Korpisalo
  42. P3 7:19Shot by Copp, saved by Korpisalo
  43. P3 7:49Shot by Sprong, saved by Korpisalo
  44. P3 8:34Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Korpisalo
  45. P3 8:38Shot by Maatta, saved by Korpisalo
  46. P3 8:50Fischer: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: DET Petry, Maatta, Copp, Fischer, Rasmussen · OTT Giroux, Chabot, Joseph, Bernard-Docker, Stützle

  47. P3 8:57Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Lyon4v5
  48. P3 10:04Shot by Stützle, saved by Lyon4v5
  49. P3 10:10Shot by Seider, saved by Korpisalo4v5
  50. P3 11:15Goal by Larkin (Compher, Maatta)+33 pts WP

    On ice: DET Petry, Maatta, Compher, Larkin, Fischer · OTT Tarasenko, Kubalik, Chychrun, Batherson, Stützle

  51. P3 12:59Shot by Seider, saved by Korpisalo
  52. P3 15:07Shot by Greig, saved by Lyon
  53. P3 15:10Shot by Greig, saved by Lyon
  54. P3 15:14Shot by Seider, saved by Korpisalo
  55. P3 16:05Shot by DeBrincat, saved by Korpisalo
  56. P3 16:19Shot by Perron, saved by Korpisalo
  57. P3 18:38Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Lyon
  58. P3 0:00Period end
  59. OT 0:00Period start
  60. OT 0:34Shot by Stützle, saved by Lyon3v3
  61. OT 2:05Goal by Pinto (Chabot, Tarasenko)3v3+55 pts WP

    On ice: DET Walman, DeBrincat, Raymond · OTT Tarasenko, Chabot, Pinto

  62. OT 2:05Period end3v3
  63. OT 2:05Final4v4