Mon, Feb 5, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 113 | 19 | 17 | 329 |
| TOR | 011 | 110 | 115 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:31NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Mike Reilly, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:50TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 2:50NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Cal Clutterbuck · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 15:12TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 17:58NYIPierre EngvallGWGAssists: Brock Nelson, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:17TORRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:55TORTyler Bertuzzi: Interference2 min
- P2 0:43NYIBo Horvat: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 0:43TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:43NYIBo Horvat: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:20NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:09
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal13:28
xG 0.80–0.57 (59%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal2:14
xG 0.19–0.14 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean5:21
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Mayfield12:12
xG 0.78–0.54 (59%)attempts 21–14goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:37
xG 0.17–0.67 (20%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov15:47
xG 0.34–1.29 (21%)attempts 9–23goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:38
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies12:17
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Domi – Gregor – Robertson5:51
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Reaves – Holmberg – McMann5:38
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren12:47
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 19–24goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit12:29
xG 0.91–0.73 (56%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Brodie – Rielly17:56
xG 0.83–0.81 (51%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).