Wed, Feb 7, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Dallas Stars 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 012 | 29 | 431 |
| TOR | 14 | 212 | 215 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Morgan Rielly · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:52DALJamie BennPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P1 17:23DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 3:40TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander · Slap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 12:37TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 11:05DALEvgenii DadonovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG3–3
- P3 11:37TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 11:57TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: John Tavares, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 18:35DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:31DALJoel Hanley: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 10:54TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:44TORTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:35DALTyler Seguin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:15TORRyan Reaves: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:55DALMiro Heiskanen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:07TORPontus Holmberg: Holding2 min
- P3 11:05TORMark Giordano: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Dadonov – Faksa – Dellandrea6:32
xG 0.17–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Steel5:26
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson2:00
xG 0.04–0.04 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston8:21
xG 0.36–0.51 (41%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Heiskanen – Harley17:50
xG 0.80–0.75 (52%)attempts 25–10goals 0–1
- Suter – Hanley11:36
xG 0.51–0.81 (39%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Hakanpää – Lindell12:55
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Holmberg – McMann5:55
xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander10:49
xG 0.22–0.10 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:05
xG 0.49–0.42 (54%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Domi – Gregor – Robertson7:58
xG 0.10–0.47 (18%)attempts 4–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Benoit14:48
xG 0.99–0.39 (71%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- Rielly – Liljegren3:17
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rielly – Benoit2:01
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).