Sat, Feb 10, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
St. Louis Blues 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 14 | 111 | 326 |
| BUF | 09 | 115 | 011 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:53STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 0:51BUFKyle OkposoUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG1–1
- P2 4:32STLJordan KyrouGWGAssists: Colton Parayko, Calle Rosen · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 18:03STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brayden Schenn, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.16 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:12STLCalle Rosen: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:47BUFRyan Johnson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:36STLOskar Sundqvist: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:41STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:29BUFZemgus Girgensons: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:56BUFJJ Peterka: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:56STLMatthew Kessel: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:46
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Hayes – Saad – Blais8:51
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours8:10
xG 0.20–0.26 (43%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko7:17
xG 0.36–1.50 (19%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Rosen7:58
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Leddy – Parayko16:03
xG 0.62–0.78 (44%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
- Krug – Kessel13:27
xG 0.47–1.51 (24%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Skinner – Thompson8:29
xG 1.56–0.07 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Robinson – Krebs6:08
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt9:21
xG 0.27–0.24 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson8:41
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Power11:29
xG 1.46–0.47 (76%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Jokiharju – Dahlin15:02
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Clifton – Dahlin3:07
xG 0.05–0.06 (46%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).