Mon, Feb 12, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Arizona Coyotes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 210 | 06 | 323 |
| PHI | 07 | 214 | 313 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:26ARIMathew DumbaAssists: Clayton Keller, Travis Dermott · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 4:23PHIMorgan FrostUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 7:57ARIMatias MaccelliAssists: J.J. Moser, Michael Kesselring · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 9:55PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 14:02ARIAlexander KerfootAssists: Jason Zucker, J.J. Moser · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 6:12PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 10:21PHIScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Travis Sanheim, Marc Staal · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 18:39PHIOwen TippettENAssists: Travis Konecny, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:54PHIOlle Lycksell: Interference2 min
- P1 4:55PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:47ARITravis Dermott: Holding2 min
- P2 4:23ARIMichael Kesselring: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:54ARISean Durzi: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:56PHITravis Sanheim: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:41PHICam York: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:02ARIJason Zucker: Interference2 min
- P2 15:55ARIJack McBain: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:17ARINick Bjugstad: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:16ARISean Durzi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:21ARIMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against McBain
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Kerfoot – Ruzicka6:55
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli7:27
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Schmaltz – Keller – McBain9:25
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Hayton – Guenther – Cooley6:21
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser7:48
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kesselring – Moser4:29
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Välimäki – Durzi4:14
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Cates3:32
xG 0.29–0.09 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Laughton – Hathaway – Cates2:12
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett3:55
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Poehling4:53
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Sanheim4:42
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York5:24
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Drysdale4:02
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).