Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
St. Louis Blues 1, Detroit Red Wings 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 15 | 010 | 123 |
| DET | 414 | 29 | 011 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33DETPatrick KaneAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:21DETMichael RasmussenGWGAssists: Lucas Raymond, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P1 5:24DETRobby FabbriUnassisted · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 19:02DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 12:28STLZachary BolducAssists: Brandon Saad, Nathan Walker · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 16:56DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Lucas Raymond, Michael Rasmussen · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–5
- P2 18:34DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane · Snap, 0.16 xG1–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:52DETLucas Raymond: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:11STLJordan Binnington: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:59STLNathan Walker: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:46STLRobert Thomas: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:06DETJ.T. Compher: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Sundqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Saad – Bolduc2:57
xG 0.25–0.10 (70%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hayes – Saad – Buchnevich4:22
xG 0.01–0.14 (8%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas5:52
xG 0.04–0.23 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Hayes – Saad – Kapanen4:08
xG 0.05–0.32 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Perunovich3:50
xG 0.11–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Leddy – Kessel2:43
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Scandella – Perunovich5:33
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Larkin – DeBrincat11:52
xG 0.95–0.48 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 2–1
- Compher – Rasmussen – Raymond10:19
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong9:52
xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Perron – Copp – Veleno9:51
xG 0.27–0.31 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot14:51
xG 1.08–0.43 (72%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Walman – Seider15:09
xG 0.84–0.29 (75%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere13:39
xG 0.85–0.39 (69%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).