Thu, Feb 29, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
New York Islanders 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 29 | 07 | 311 | 527 |
| DET | 06 | 19 | 210 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11NYIBrock NelsonUnassisted · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 16:18NYICasey CizikasAssists: Adam Pelech, Noah Dobson · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 5:04DETOlli MaattaAssists: David Perron, Joseph Veleno · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 0:10DETPatrick KaneAssists: Dylan Larkin, Jeff Petry · Snap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 5:04NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 10:49DETOlli MaattaAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Sprong · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:58NYIMathew BarzalGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:24NYIPierre EngvallENAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Casey Cizikas · Wrist, 0.77 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:35DETDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:41NYIRyan Pulock: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:03DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:41NYICal Clutterbuck: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:24DETChristian Fischer: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Horvat – Barzal13:06
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 12–18goals 2–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean8:09
xG 0.04–0.19 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Pageau9:12
xG 0.21–0.60 (26%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Engvall – Holmstrom10:47
xG 0.24–0.77 (24%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov9:59
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Reilly – Aho8:38
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Pulock – Dobson2:15
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Larkin – DeBrincat14:58
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Perron – Copp – Veleno10:09
xG 0.78–0.56 (58%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Raymond12:03
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong3:35
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot10:59
xG 0.50–0.10 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere15:01
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 13–15goals 2–0
- Walman – Seider16:02
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).