Thu, Feb 29, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 110 | 113 | 232 |
| TOR | 18 | 214 | 14 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:04TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 1:05TORTyler BertuzziAssists: William Lagesson, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 13:12TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 14:39ARIAlexander KerfootSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P3 9:52ARILogan CooleyAssists: Matias Maccelli, Juuso Välimäki · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 19:00TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: David Kampf · Wrist, 0.43 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:52ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:52TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:16ARIMichael Kesselring: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00ARIJason Zucker: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hayton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Zucker – Guenther – Cooley8:04
xG 0.20–0.30 (41%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli13:48
xG 0.33–0.55 (37%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Carcone – McBain8:41
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Hayton10:45
xG 0.30–1.06 (22%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Välimäki12:45
xG 0.85–0.16 (84%)attempts 18–14goals 1–0
- Dumba – Moser18:49
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- Välimäki – Moser2:00
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Robertson – McMann9:25
xG 0.49–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:11
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Holmberg7:59
xG 0.94–0.76 (55%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander9:46
xG 0.24–0.60 (29%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLagesson – Benoit3:41
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Lagesson2:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Lagesson3:46
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).