Sun, Mar 3, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Winnipeg Jets 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 08 | 414 | 535 |
| BUF | 16 | 16 | 07 | 219 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:33BUFJJ PeterkaPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Jeff Skinner · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 19:54WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:20BUFEric RobinsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 10:38WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Mark Scheifele, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 13:55WPGMorgan BarronGWGAssists: Cole Perfetti · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 18:39WPGVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Kyle Connor · Backhand, 0.77 xG4–2
- P3 19:06WPGSean MonahanENAssists: Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton · Wrist, 0.74 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:38WPGMason Appleton: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34BUFPeyton Krebs: Cross checking2 min
- P3 1:23BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:39WPGBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Ehlers – Iafallo3:29
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:04
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor8:31
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Monahan – Iafallo7:24
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk7:09
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:06
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Dillon – DeMelo2:06
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Robinson – Krebs8:45
xG 0.70–0.14 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson8:43
xG 0.27–0.33 (45%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Mittelstadt9:58
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
- Tuch – Greenway – Krebs2:03
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Power12:49
xG 0.66–0.14 (82%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Clifton – Johnson6:59
xG 0.44–0.05 (89%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Power2:53
xG 0.12–0.09 (57%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).