Thu, Mar 7, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Calgary Flames 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 17 | 38 | 29 | 624 |
| TBL | 16 | 16 | 110 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40CGYDryden HuntAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 14:28TBLConor ShearyAssists: Nick Paul, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 6:11CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 8:34CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Matt Coronato · Slap, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 9:25CGYJakob PelletierGWGAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Joel Hanley · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–1
- P2 12:29TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.30 xG4–2
- P3 6:04CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.18 xG5–2
- P3 12:17CGYAndrew MangiapaneENAssists: Mikael Backlund, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.54 xG6–2
- P3 14:35TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Conor Sheary, Nick Paul · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:16TBLErik Cernak: Holding2 min
- P1 16:06CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:06CGYNazem Kadri: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:06TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:25TBLMichael Eyssimont: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:24CGYNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:58TBLBrandon Hagel: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:58CGYBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P3 16:41CGYNazem Kadri: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:04TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:27
xG 0.69–0.18 (79%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Coronato8:47
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
- Hunt – Rooney – Duehr5:11
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Kadri – Pelletier – Kuzmenko8:18
xG 0.25–0.40 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Pachal11:56
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 3–0
- Hanley – Pachal2:24
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Weegar – Pachal3:41
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Glendening – Motte – Hagel2:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Paul – Sheary2:17
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Paul – Sheary – Eyssimont4:58
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 2–2
- Glendening – Motte – Sheary4:24
xG 0.19–0.20 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh6:09
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- de Haan – Crozier3:05
xG 0.20–0.12 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Crozier7:06
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 10–4goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).