Sat, Mar 16, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 216 | 213 | 02 | 1 | 540 |
| TOR | 09 | 314 | 111 | 06 | 0 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:47TORJohn TavaresAssists: TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 6:27TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 12:03TORNick RobertsonAssists: John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 13:27CARJordan MartinookAssists: Brent Burns, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 19:57CARSeth JarvisPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sebastian Aho · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 2:55TORDavid KampfAssists: Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 18:28CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:53CARSebastian AhoAssists: Brent Burns, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. TOR William Nylander stopped
- 2. CAR Evgeny Kuznetsov stopped
- 3. TOR Auston Matthews stopped
- 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
- 5. TOR Max Domi stopped
- 6. CAR Jake Guentzel scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:39CARJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:56TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P1 15:41CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
- P1 18:02TORConnor Dewar: Holding2 min
- P2 9:20TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min
- P2 18:51TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:16CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:06TORDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:13CARJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook4:18
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Kuznetsov – Guentzel – Necas5:21
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Necas – Svechnikov4:41
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Fast – Aho – Svechnikov5:47
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield11:49
xG 0.96–0.28 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin13:51
xG 0.78–0.68 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Skjei – Pesce13:15
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Matthews – McMann2:40
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – Dewar8:35
xG 0.23–0.35 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Tavares – Robertson – Knies8:52
xG 0.27–0.41 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 2–0
- Domi – Nylander – McMann8:22
xG 0.35–0.71 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren2:39
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin12:37
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Liljegren12:59
xG 0.55–0.88 (39%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).