Tue, Mar 19, 2024·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 011 | 312 | 330 |
| PHI | 18 | 215 | 17 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19PHIOwen TippettAssists: Cam York, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 0:56PHITravis SanheimAssists: Garnet Hathaway · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 16:26PHIMorgan FrostAssists: Ronnie Attard · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P3 1:11TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 10:16TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 13:00PHIScott LaughtonGWGAssists: Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–4
- P3 17:50TORJohn TavaresAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:53PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:53TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:44PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:50TORWilliam Nylander: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:01PHIMorgan Frost: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:47TORPontus Holmberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:50PHIScott Laughton: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Matthews – Holmberg2:40
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Kampf – Dewar – Robertson2:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Knies6:30
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Kampf – Dewar – McMann4:13
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren3:45
xG 0.71–0.09 (89%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Brodie – Edmundson2:21
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit12:25
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Frost9:52
xG 0.41–0.26 (61%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Foerster9:47
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Cates – Lycksell4:24
xG 0.03–0.03 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Laughton – Farabee – Brink7:42
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Zamula14:02
xG 0.42–0.49 (46%)attempts 12–28goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York17:40
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 15–17goals 2–1
- Ginning – Attard10:47
xG 0.20–0.37 (36%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).