Tue, Mar 19, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 314 | 011 | 19 | 434 |
| NYI | 08 | 011 | 112 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48CARSeth JarvisAssists: Brady Skjei, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 14:53CARSeth JarvisGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:58CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 4:30NYIKyle PalmieriAssists: Brock Nelson, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 16:22CARJake GuentzelENAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.61 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:43CARMartin Necas: Holding2 min
- P1 18:12NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:04NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:04CARBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacLean won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Aho – Jarvis12:50
xG 0.85–0.08 (91%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:46
xG 0.63–0.09 (88%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Noesen – Lemieux – Kotkaniemi8:52
xG 0.05–0.33 (14%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Necas – Svechnikov12:44
xG 0.68–0.98 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin16:59
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:25
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield15:33
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Barzal – Holmstrom8:55
xG 0.19–0.11 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Pageau – Fasching7:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – MacLean10:54
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Barzal4:41
xG 0.00–0.25 (1%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov3:03
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Pulock – Romanov14:14
xG 0.64–0.62 (51%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).