Sat, Mar 23, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Edmonton Oilers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 06 | 015 | 318 | 339 |
| TOR | 210 | 313 | 16 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17TORBobby McMannAssists: John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 18:14TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 8:02TORPontus HolmbergAssists: Max Domi, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 11:04TORPontus HolmbergGWGAssists: Bobby McMann, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 15:46TORBobby McMannAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
- P3 4:59EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 8:32EDMCorey PerryPPAssists: Evander Kane, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 16:21EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 19:47TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:46TORMatthew Knies: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:47TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P1 16:57EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:33EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:50TORConor Timmins: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:26EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:26TORJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Misconduct10 min
- P3 3:21TORConor Timmins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:35TORConnor Dewar: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:36EDMMattias Janmark: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:36TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Kane7:38
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid8:02
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Carrick – Brown – Janmark6:26
xG 0.18–0.35 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Foegele – McLeod6:13
xG 0.08–0.27 (22%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Kulak8:24
xG 0.51–0.36 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Nurse – Desharnais7:09
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Ceci – Nurse2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Matthews – Holmberg4:46
xG 0.30–0.10 (74%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies5:22
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann6:48
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 6–12goals 2–0
- Gregor – Kampf – Dewar7:27
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Liljegren10:56
xG 0.69–0.47 (60%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Timmins – Benoit8:24
xG 0.12–0.42 (22%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – McCabe12:54
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 4–23goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).