Sun, Mar 24, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 013 | 113 | 133 |
| CAR | 216 | 015 | 012 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06CARBrady SkjeiAssists: Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 13:55CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Jake Guentzel, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P3 8:51TORNick RobertsonAssists: Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:04CARAndrei Svechnikov: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:27TORDavid Kampf: Holding2 min
- P1 8:41TORJoel Edmundson: Penalty shot covering puck in crease0 min
- P1 12:50TORPontus Holmberg: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:15CARBrent Burns: Holding2 min
- P2 14:14TORNick Robertson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:11CARAndrei Svechnikov: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:45CARBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – McMann5:45
xG 0.48–0.20 (70%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann2:52
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – Holmberg5:01
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – Knies5:33
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Liljegren8:31
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin10:44
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren5:31
xG 0.27–0.35 (43%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Teravainen – Martinook8:31
xG 0.80–0.02 (98%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Kotkaniemi – Drury6:17
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Necas – Svechnikov7:14
xG 0.45–0.51 (47%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Aho – Jarvis11:49
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin13:18
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Orlov – Chatfield11:39
xG 0.65–0.54 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:07
xG 0.89–1.10 (45%)attempts 16–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).