Sat, Mar 30, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Buffalo Sabres 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 16 | 18 | 322 |
| BUF | 010 | 08 | 016 | 034 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: William Nylander, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:34TORNick RobertsonAssists: Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P3 14:23TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
Penalties (22)
- P1 6:33TORConnor Dewar: Holding2 min
- P1 8:47TORConnor Dewar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:11BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P2 4:55BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:19TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:28TORJake McCabe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:42TORSimon Benoit: Interference2 min
- P3 7:44BUFJeff Skinner: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:13TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:04BUFRasmus Dahlin: Boarding2 min
- P3 19:04TORMark Giordano: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04BUFRasmus Dahlin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04TORTJ Brodie: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04BUFTage Thompson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04TORTyler Bertuzzi: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04BUFOwen Power: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04TORAuston Matthews: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04BUFAlex Tuch: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04TORBobby McMann: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04BUFJordan Greenway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:04BUFJJ Peterka: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00BUFDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Domi – Matthews8:22
xG 1.00–0.20 (84%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann6:51
xG 0.32–0.04 (89%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar7:07
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Holmberg – Robertson – Knies6:57
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Timmins8:03
xG 1.07–0.11 (91%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Timmins – Benoit2:22
xG 0.07–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Benoit2:25
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGirgensons – Olofsson – Jost7:14
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Greenway – Cozens – Benson4:29
xG 0.10–0.10 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Krebs – Quinn3:05
xG 0.01–0.15 (7%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka9:00
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power11:38
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Byram – Power2:23
xG 0.04–0.04 (48%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson7:46
xG 0.08–0.17 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).