Wed, Apr 3, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 210 | 111 | 425 |
| TOR | 111 | 014 | 04 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:03TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 19:00TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 2:54TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Duclair · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 8:47TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Brandon Hagel, Haydn Fleury · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 14:19TBLNick PaulAssists: Darren Raddysh, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:23TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:26TORTJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:25TORBobby McMann: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:57TBLLuke Glendening: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 0:23TBLBrandon Hagel: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:02TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:16TBLAnthony Duclair: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:16TORSimon Benoit: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:10TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:10TORRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:46TORConor Timmins: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Duclair – Point8:08
xG 0.91–0.62 (59%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Chaffee8:52
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot5:44
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel9:00
xG 0.30–0.25 (54%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh10:09
xG 0.77–0.33 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Fleury – Cernak14:48
xG 0.80–0.69 (54%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:52
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – McMann9:13
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar6:48
xG 0.53–0.29 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Holmberg – Robertson – Knies9:53
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Matthews11:20
xG 0.49–0.79 (38%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Timmins10:03
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly2:43
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit11:45
xG 0.65–0.61 (51%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).