Mon, Apr 15, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 216 | 19 | 434 |
| TBL | 016 | 17 | 110 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jack Quinn, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:27TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 5:08BUFDylan CozensSHAssists: Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 16:13BUFJordan GreenwayGWGAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Tyson Jost · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 9:39TBLErik CernakAssists: Nick Paul · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 9:54BUFZach BensonAssists: Jack Quinn, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.21 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:34BUFJordan Greenway: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:24TBLTanner Jeannot: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:00TBLEmil Lilleberg: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Benson10:03
xG 1.28–0.18 (87%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Tuch – Greenway – Peterka5:08
xG 0.17–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Peterka5:05
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Greenway – Krebs4:10
xG 0.14–0.50 (22%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin14:12
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson13:20
xG 0.68–0.49 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Byram – Power13:50
xG 1.41–1.45 (49%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Duclair – Point9:55
xG 1.12–0.45 (72%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel6:43
xG 0.55–0.35 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Paul – Sheary – Jeannot3:45
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Duclair – Cirelli – Hagel4:00
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh17:19
xG 1.49–0.89 (62%)attempts 20–16goals 0–0
- Cernak – Perbix15:42
xG 0.86–0.70 (55%)attempts 16–15goals 2–2
- Dumba – Lilleberg12:43
xG 0.23–1.16 (17%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).