Sat, Oct 19, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Ottawa Senators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 312 | 111 | 429 |
| OTT | 28 | 213 | 17 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Slap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 13:21OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Claude Giroux, Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 1:59TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Erik Cernak · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 10:39TBLNick PaulAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 13:20OTTDrake BathersonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 18:13TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 18:56OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Tim Stützle · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 6:17OTTNoah GregorSHGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Jake Sanderson · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–5
- P3 8:11TBLMitchell ChaffeeAssists: Nick Perbix, Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:30TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 1:09TBLJ.J. Moser: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 5:33OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:32TBLNick Perbix: Holding2 min
- P2 18:42TBLNick Paul: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:30OTTShane Pinto: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:42OTTJosh Norris: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:42OTTTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:42OTTTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:42TBLAnthony Cirelli: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:42TBLNick Paul: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:10TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Cirelli – Hagel8:11
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Chaffee2:00
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Glendening – Girgensons – Chaffee4:06
xG 0.01–0.07 (16%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sheary – Eyssimont – Geekie5:41
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser2:22
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:50
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Perbix – Moser4:24
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Norris – Batherson10:51
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Perron – Gregor – Pinto7:19
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Cousins – Gaudette – MacEwen5:49
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Amadio – Tkachuk – Stützle10:32
xG 0.18–0.43 (30%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Chabot12:21
xG 0.56–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:15
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven12:00
xG 0.13–0.25 (35%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).