Tue, Oct 22, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Dallas Stars 2, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 011 | 211 | 230 |
| BUF | 010 | 211 | 24 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:21BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Owen Power · Bat, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 13:44BUFRyan McLeodAssists: Jason Zucker, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P3 4:17BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Owen Power, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 15:24DALThomas HarleyAssists: Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 17:48DALTyler SeguinAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mavrik Bourque · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:49BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.83 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:44BUFPeyton Krebs: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:19BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:56BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P2 8:29DALEsa Lindell: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston5:49
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Johnston3:21
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Benn – Steel – Stankoven2:50
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Blackwell – Bourque2:25
xG 0.01–0.02 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLundkvist – Harley2:45
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dumba – Lindell2:34
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lindell – Lyubushkin3:19
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Peterka9:56
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Thompson – Peterka – Kulich2:05
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod10:39
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Lafferty – Malenstyn – Krebs5:19
xG 0.13–0.16 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power5:33
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Clifton – Samuelsson11:04
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Byram2:25
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).