Wed, Nov 27, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Calgary Flames 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 05 | 112 | 01 | 125 |
| DET | 18 | 010 | 08 | 11 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:33DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Lucas Raymond · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 17:12CGYConnor ZaryPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Yegor Sharangovich · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 3:35DETLucas RaymondPPGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:01CGYMatt Coronato: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 7:08CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P1 9:59CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Interference2 min
- P1 10:26DETDylan Larkin: Holding2 min
- P2 15:30DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:03DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:20DETDylan Larkin: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
- OT 3:06CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Huberdeau – Zary10:10
xG 0.44–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Rooney6:14
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Kuzmenko10:03
xG 0.38–0.70 (35%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato11:21
xG 0.13–0.62 (18%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hanley – Pachal11:05
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Weegar – Miromanov15:16
xG 0.25–0.54 (31%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
- Andersson – Bahl17:42
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Larkin – Raymond9:42
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen10:51
xG 0.61–0.32 (66%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Berggren – Kasper2:45
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Veleno – Berggren – Kasper7:23
xG 0.18–0.12 (61%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Johansson8:34
xG 0.35–0.05 (87%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot14:22
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Seider – Edvinsson16:12
xG 0.41–0.41 (50%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).