Sat, Nov 30, 2024·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 17 | 315 | 17 | 529 |
| TBL | 010 | 013 | 318 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13TORMatthew KniesAssists: Chris Tanev, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 8:06TORChris TanevAssists: Mitch Marner, Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 8:39TORNick RobertsonAssists: Fraser Minten, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 18:59TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–0
- P3 11:21TBLMichael EyssimontAssists: Darren Raddysh · Slap, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 15:19TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 17:38TBLCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 18:44TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.47 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:50TBLBrayden Point: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:25TORNikita Grebenkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 6:19TORAuston Matthews: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:27TOROliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies13:22
xG 0.69–0.21 (76%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Lorentz – Robertson – Minten7:02
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Nylander – Dewar – Grebenkin4:50
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Tavares – Marner – Holmberg11:48
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 19–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Benoit5:12
xG 0.34–0.08 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly14:11
xG 0.84–0.62 (57%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Tanev – McCabe7:49
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Geekie13:10
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Girgensons – Sheary – Eyssimont6:34
xG 0.14–0.15 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Guentzel – Point – Goncalves9:24
xG 0.25–0.31 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak15:35
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Raddysh – Lilleberg2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Perbix – Lilleberg8:27
xG 0.20–0.31 (39%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).