Tue, Dec 3, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 5, Buffalo Sabres 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 115 | 417 | 541 |
| BUF | 412 | 011 | 07 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Connor Clifton, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 6:39BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jason Zucker, Bowen Byram · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 6:50BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Zach Benson, Dylan Cozens · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 11:49BUFBeck MalenstynAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 2:24COLNathan MacKinnonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 1:19COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Calvin de Haan, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 4:30COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 7:39COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 15:38COLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:22COLNikolai Kovalenko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 9:31COLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:57BUFZach Benson: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:09COLNikolai Kovalenko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNichushkin – Mittelstadt – Kovalenko6:47
xG 0.56–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- O'Connor – Kiviranta – Ivan8:53
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kelly – Prishchepov2:16
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen17:26
xG 1.48–1.71 (46%)attempts 31–22goals 3–2
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski13:31
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- de Haan – Ludvig12:09
xG 0.42–1.06 (28%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Toews – Makar19:39
xG 0.84–1.91 (30%)attempts 22–26goals 2–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Quinn – Kulich5:34
xG 0.70–0.44 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson11:22
xG 1.08–0.91 (54%)attempts 13–18goals 2–1
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Krebs9:47
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson11:45
xG 0.50–0.65 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Bryson4:21
xG 0.60–0.07 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Byram13:10
xG 1.00–0.54 (65%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power10:27
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).