Tue, Dec 3, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 113 | 011 | 317 | 00 | 441 |
| PIT | 25 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 516 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20PITOwen PickeringAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 10:32PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Philip Tomasino, Drew O'Connor · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 17:24FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 6:54PITKris LetangAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Blake Lizotte · Snap, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 3:45PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 6:55FLASam BennettAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 8:58FLAAdam BoqvistAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 11:27FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–4
- OT 1:31PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:17FLADmitry Kulikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:37FLAA.J. Greer: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:37PITNoel Acciari: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:49PITBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Verhaeghe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues8:19
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart5:30
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:36
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich7:00
xG 0.39–0.14 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling17:17
xG 0.91–0.49 (65%)attempts 26–8goals 0–1
- Kulikov – Mikkola4:11
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Boqvist10:30
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 19–9goals 2–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Tomasino – O'Connor12:42
xG 0.72–0.45 (62%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Bunting – Beauvillier – Lizotte10:11
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 2–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:26
xG 0.39–0.74 (34%)attempts 10–27goals 0–0
- Hayes – Nieto – Acciari7:31
xG 0.03–0.60 (5%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Letang – Grzelcyk16:41
xG 0.63–0.60 (51%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Shea – Pickering11:06
xG 0.32–0.38 (45%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson20:23
xG 0.37–0.98 (28%)attempts 12–33goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).