Mon, Dec 9, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Detroit Red Wings 6, Buffalo Sabres 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 29 | 110 | 212 | 00 | 2 | 631 |
| BUF | 37 | 210 | 04 | 00 | 1 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:38BUFZach BensonAssists: Dylan Cozens, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:05DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dylan Larkin · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 4:46DETAndrew CoppAssists: J.T. Compher, Moritz Seider · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 10:25BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jason Zucker · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P1 15:26BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Peyton Krebs, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P2 1:05DETLucas RaymondAssists: Dylan Larkin, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P2 2:26BUFNicolas Aube-KubelAssists: Beck Malenstyn, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P2 9:46BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
- P3 10:27DETAndrew CoppAssists: Ben Chiarot, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–5
- P3 15:42DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Lucas Raymond, Simon Edvinsson · Snap, 0.03 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. DET Lucas Raymond scored
- 3. BUF JJ Peterka stopped
- 4. DET Patrick Kane stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch scored
- 6. DET Dylan Larkin scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:59BUFHenri Jokiharju: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:37DETAlex DeBrincat: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 15:37BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:25DETMarco Kasper: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:31BUFZach Benson: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:50BUFConnor Clifton: Interference2 min
- P3 5:50DETAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:51BUFBowen Byram: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:41DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Copp – Compher9:38
xG 0.75–0.24 (76%)attempts 18–5goals 2–1
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond12:29
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Kane – Rasmussen – Kasper10:11
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Motte – Veleno – Berggren5:14
xG 0.10–0.47 (18%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeider – Edvinsson15:43
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Holl – Gustafsson11:17
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 13–4goals 1–2
- Petry – Chiarot14:06
xG 0.82–0.91 (47%)attempts 14–21goals 2–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestKrebs – Cozens – Benson9:46
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Peterka8:26
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Zucker – Greenway – McLeod8:31
xG 0.38–0.44 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn – Kozak7:20
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power13:13
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson8:11
xG 0.44–0.33 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Clifton – Johnson2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).