Sat, Dec 14, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 115 | 14 | 225 |
| DET | 110 | 19 | 27 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Jeff Petry, Joseph Veleno · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 11:40TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 19:42DETMoritz SeiderAssists: Andrew Copp, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 1:07TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 1:51DETJeff PetryGWGAssists: J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 19:58DETLucas RaymondENAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.76 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:42TORMax Pacioretty: Kneeing2 min
- P1 4:52DETPatrick Kane: Holding2 min
- P2 10:53DETJonatan Berggren: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:59TORConor Timmins: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:09TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies11:37
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Lorentz – Dewar – Holmberg6:22
xG 0.09–0.12 (41%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander11:53
xG 0.58–0.69 (45%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
- Domi – McMann – Minten7:05
xG 0.24–0.56 (30%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit12:49
xG 0.86–0.77 (53%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Tanev – McCabe14:33
xG 0.66–0.59 (53%)attempts 12–18goals 1–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly15:27
xG 0.44–0.90 (33%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Compher – Rasmussen3:35
xG 0.44–0.07 (87%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat7:44
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond4:15
xG 0.23–0.25 (47%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Fischer – Rasmussen5:51
xG 0.02–0.34 (5%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson11:06
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot17:38
xG 1.21–1.25 (49%)attempts 22–28goals 2–0
- Seider – Edvinsson14:14
xG 0.39–0.68 (37%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).