Sun, Dec 15, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 211 | 19 | 07 | 327 |
| TOR | 18 | 314 | 119 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03BUFJack QuinnPPAssists: JJ Peterka, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 2:46BUFAlex TuchAssists: Zach Benson, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 15:45TORMax DomiAssists: Nick Robertson, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–1
- P2 9:11BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 11:20TORNick RobertsonAssists: Bobby McMann, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 12:41TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, William Nylander · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 13:51TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 17:48TORJohn TavaresENAssists: Matthew Knies, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.58 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:30TORChris Tanev: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 4:13BUFRyan McLeod: Holding2 min
- P1 9:25BUFJJ Peterka: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:48BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:23BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:48BUFDylan Cozens: Abuse of officials10 min
- P3 19:47TORChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMalenstyn – McLeod – Krebs7:19
xG 0.38–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Kulich – Benson2:15
xG 0.03–0.00 (90%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zucker – Greenway – Kulich6:31
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson9:51
xG 0.34–0.56 (38%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Samuelsson – Power15:59
xG 1.08–1.19 (47%)attempts 19–22goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Bryson8:46
xG 0.25–0.52 (33%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Jokiharju – Byram17:38
xG 0.59–0.96 (38%)attempts 17–21goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Robertson – McMann10:26
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Knies6:06
xG 0.75–0.02 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Nylander – Marner – Matthews7:35
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies4:52
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers7:34
xG 1.37–0.02 (98%)attempts 17–2goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Tanev8:02
xG 0.84–0.18 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- McCabe – Benoit7:07
xG 0.43–0.38 (53%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).