Fri, Dec 20, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 29 | 312 | 18 | 629 |
| BUF | 09 | 211 | 17 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29TORBobby McMannAssists: Max Domi, Nick Robertson · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 6:05TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 1:53TORNick RobertsonAssists: Morgan Rielly, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 2:22BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 4:27TORMax DomiGWGAssists: Bobby McMann, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–1
- P2 10:47TORMax PaciorettyAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.16 xG5–1
- P2 15:56BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Owen Power, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–2
- P3 11:56BUFOwen PowerAssists: Jiri Kulich, Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.25 xG5–3
- P3 19:40TORWilliam NylanderENAssists: John Tavares, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:34BUFJason Zucker: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 12:40TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:40TORMorgan Rielly: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:40BUFTage Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:26TORJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26BUFDylan Cozens: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:43TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:39TORJohn Tavares: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:39BUFJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:32BUFJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Nylander10:12
xG 0.85–0.53 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Domi – Robertson – McMann7:45
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:06
xG 0.44–0.20 (68%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Holmberg8:02
xG 0.03–0.48 (5%)attempts 2–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Timmins11:34
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Timmins – Benoit3:02
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit8:43
xG 0.33–0.35 (49%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Malenstyn – McLeod7:31
xG 0.38–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka9:36
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Krebs – Kulich – Benson7:58
xG 0.11–0.17 (40%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Zucker – Tuch – Thompson11:02
xG 0.41–0.90 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Gilbert6:41
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Power12:11
xG 0.48–0.49 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Dahlin – Power2:33
xG 0.03–0.09 (27%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).