Sat, Dec 21, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Islanders 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 39 | 012 | 313 | 634 |
| TOR | 16 | 110 | 113 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:47NYIMaxim TsyplakovAssists: Bo Horvat, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 4:48NYIBo HorvatAssists: Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 12:29TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–1
- P1 16:08NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Anders Lee, Alexander Romanov · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 5:43TORWilliam NylanderAssists: David Kampf, Matthew Knies · Snap, 0.27 xG3–2
- P3 5:23NYIIsaiah GeorgeGWGAssists: Anthony Duclair, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P3 10:36NYINoah DobsonAssists: Simon Holmstrom, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–2
- P3 13:49TORBobby McMannAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake McCabe · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 17:40NYIMathew BarzalENAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.58 xG6–3
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Barzal12:14
xG 1.50–0.60 (71%)attempts 26–11goals 1–0
- Horvat – Holmstrom – Tsyplakov12:14
xG 0.82–0.50 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – MacLean9:36
xG 0.35–0.09 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Duclair13:17
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 13–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestDobson – Romanov18:51
xG 1.24–0.89 (58%)attempts 29–16goals 1–0
- Mayfield – George13:38
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 13–14goals 3–0
- Pelech – Pulock18:37
xG 0.57–0.74 (44%)attempts 16–12goals 0–3
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Tavares – Marner2:46
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Nylander – Kampf – Knies8:07
xG 0.50–0.40 (55%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Marner – Kampf – Knies3:42
xG 0.08–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Lorentz – Dewar10:15
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Rielly9:30
xG 0.69–0.16 (81%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly4:19
xG 0.51–0.10 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Timmins3:52
xG 0.12–0.10 (53%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).