Mon, Dec 23, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 111 | 17 | 39 | 527 |
| TOR | 08 | 110 | 17 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:04WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:16WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Mark Scheifele · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 5:25TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, William Nylander · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 3:27WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–1
- P3 11:57WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Josh Morrissey · Poke, 0.22 xG4–1
- P3 13:42TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake McCabe, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:39WPGMark ScheifeleENAssists: Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:10TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37TORMax Domi: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:37WPGAlex Iafallo: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:37TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:16WPGMason Appleton: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:01WPGDylan DeMelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:05
xG 0.66–0.12 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:55
xG 1.04–0.63 (62%)attempts 10–18goals 3–1
- Iafallo – Barron – Gustafsson6:26
xG 0.18–0.22 (45%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Scheifele – Appleton2:10
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Heinola2:42
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Miller – Pionk6:04
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:03
xG 0.98–0.72 (58%)attempts 10–22goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Nylander – Robertson6:49
xG 0.54–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Dewar – Holmberg7:27
xG 0.64–0.61 (51%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner3:00
xG 0.13–0.23 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Tavares – Marner – Knies10:05
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – McCabe15:15
xG 0.86–0.30 (74%)attempts 24–6goals 1–2
- Rielly – Myers14:18
xG 0.57–0.70 (45%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Timmins – Benoit11:08
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).