Fri, Dec 27, 2024·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 311 | 210 | 02 | 523 |
| DET | 013 | 04 | 28 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:29TORDavid KampfAssists: Steven Lorentz · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 8:16TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Philippe Myers · Slap, 0.15 xG2–0
- P1 19:28TORMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Slap, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 16:23TORMitch MarnerAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Pacioretty · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–0
- P2 19:58TORNick RobertsonAssists: Max Domi, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.23 xG5–0
- P3 8:17DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 12:08DETSimon EdvinssonAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:31TORSimon Benoit: Interference2 min
- P1 12:01DETJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P1 16:41DETLucas Raymond: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 1:39TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:40TORBobby McMann: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLorentz – Kampf – Dewar8:07
xG 0.64–0.07 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Marner9:30
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 9–4goals 2–1
- Domi – Robertson – McMann7:28
xG 0.40–0.31 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Nylander – Holmberg – Knies11:32
xG 0.06–0.35 (15%)attempts 3–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers13:49
xG 0.54–0.26 (67%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Tanev – McCabe14:56
xG 0.56–0.30 (65%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:03
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat11:51
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Larkin – Veleno – Raymond3:36
xG 0.07–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Compher – Rasmussen – Berggren5:19
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Kasper2:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson12:56
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot4:44
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider10:57
xG 0.21–0.48 (31%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).