Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Jan 2, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver

Buffalo Sabres 5, Colorado Avalanche 6 (OT)

Away

Buffalo Sabres

5

Final

Overtime

Home

Colorado Avalanche

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.

COL winsBUF wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
BUF210172400521
COL091941011629

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 13:17BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Tage Thompson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
  2. P1 17:10BUFBowen ByramAssists: Jason Zucker, Dylan Cozens · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–0
  3. P2 11:08BUFJason ZuckerPPAssists: Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–0
  4. P2 14:58COLCale MakarAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P3 1:05COLRoss ColtonAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
  6. P3 1:27BUFZach BensonAssists: Peyton Krebs, JJ Peterka · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG4–2
  7. P3 4:17COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.16 xG4–3
  8. P3 16:09BUFJason ZuckerAssists: Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.29 xG5–3
  9. P3 17:34COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG5–4
  10. P3 19:52COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.14 xG5–5
  11. OT 0:48COLDevon ToewsGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 12:18COLJosh Manson: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P2 10:12COLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 17:03BUFZach Benson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  4. P3 1:27COLJere Innala: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  5. P3 3:04BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min · PPG
  6. P3 3:19BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min
  7. P3 3:45BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
  8. P3 3:45COLArtturi Lehkonen: Roughing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

BUF00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0COL
43% to win57% to win
← BUF attackCOL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against MacKinnon
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

BUFCOL
21Shots on goal29
2.2Expected goals3.3
37Shot attempts60
37Faceoffs won30
3Power plays3
8Penalty minutes8
27Hits31
9Blocked shots9
7Giveaways5
4Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Buffalo Sabres

Forward lines

  1. bestZucker – Thompson – Cozens13:00

    xG 0.62–0.34 (65%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1

  2. Krebs – Peterka – Benson6:13

    xG 0.12–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0

  3. Lafferty – Malenstyn – McLeod9:13

    xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0

  4. Tuch – Quinn – Kulich9:45

    xG 0.03–0.29 (9%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestClifton – Bryson8:31

    xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0

  2. Samuelsson – Power16:03

    xG 0.83–0.69 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–2

  3. Dahlin – Byram13:51

    xG 0.10–0.41 (19%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestLehkonen – Colton – Mittelstadt4:56

    xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0

  2. Drouin – Colton – Mittelstadt5:01

    xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0

  3. Parssinen – Olausson – Innala4:49

    xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Rantanen7:26

    xG 0.15–0.28 (34%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestToews – Makar14:23

    xG 0.40–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0

  2. Girard – Malinski4:37

    xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0

  3. Toews – Girard2:52

    xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

COL 3.3 xGBUF 2.2 xG
0123P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

COLBUF

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #7 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.57 · 11 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 1% (winner's lowest chance)
BUF 100%5050%50COL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +51 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 68% of the time.

COL winsBUF wins

Simulated goal difference (COL − BUF), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).