Sat, Jan 4, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Boston Bruins 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 212 | 210 | 431 |
| TOR | 111 | 110 | 48 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29TORJake McCabeAssists: Mitch Marner, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:37TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 3:49BOSMorgan GeekieAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie Coyle · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 18:44BOSTrent FredericAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 3:43TORMatthew KniesAssists: John Tavares, Mitch Marner · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 4:17BOSDavid PastrnakUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 5:28TORMatthew KniesAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake McCabe · Slap, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 17:55TORMitch MarnerENGWGAssists: Matthew Knies · Wrist, 0.73 xG3–5
- P3 18:10BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.16 xG4–5
- P3 19:29TORAuston MatthewsENAssists: Mitch Marner, Matthew Knies · Poke, 0.71 xG4–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:12TORMatthew Knies: Holding2 min
- P2 15:15TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:35BOSElias Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:59BOSMorgan Geekie: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKastelic – Koepke – Beecher7:09
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Wahlstrom8:19
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Lindholm3:49
xG 0.06–0.02 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Coyle – Zacha – Geekie6:12
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Carlo13:52
xG 0.50–0.35 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Zadorov – McAvoy16:45
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 15–18goals 1–2
- Peeke – Lohrei12:48
xG 0.31–0.58 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies11:40
xG 0.74–0.16 (82%)attempts 18–14goals 3–0
- Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander10:41
xG 0.44–0.37 (55%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Domi – Robertson – McMann9:40
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Lorentz – Kampf – Dewar7:20
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Myers15:21
xG 0.52–0.46 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Tanev – McCabe16:15
xG 0.79–0.78 (50%)attempts 16–17goals 3–1
- Ekman-Larsson – Benoit13:36
xG 0.42–0.63 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).