Tue, Jan 7, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 02 | 27 | 18 | 317 |
| PHI | 110 | 19 | 013 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:19PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Cam York · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:19TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:14PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Noah Cates · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 7:55TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 13:21TORMatthew KniesGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Philippe Myers · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:47PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:47TORConnor Dewar: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:55PHIJamie Drysdale: Holding2 min
- P1 16:22PHIOwen Tippett: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:24PHICam York: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:54PHITyson Foerster: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:10TORDavid Kampf: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:34TORMax Pacioretty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:12TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:47PHIJamie Drysdale: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Marner – Matthews – Knies10:17
xG 0.36–0.31 (53%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Tavares – Nylander – McMann9:06
xG 0.26–0.33 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Domi – Lorentz10:37
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Kampf – Dewar4:56
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Tanev14:13
xG 0.62–0.39 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Benoit2:05
xG 0.00–0.05 (2%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Poehling10:33
xG 0.64–0.42 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Laughton – Frost – Michkov5:34
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster8:18
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Couturier – Hathaway – Farabee4:44
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York15:01
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
- Ristolainen – Zamula13:27
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Seeler – Drysdale12:03
xG 0.33–0.63 (34%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).