Thu, Jan 9, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Boston Bruins 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 07 | 112 | 128 |
| TBL | 011 | 213 | 27 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:07TBLAnthony CirelliSHAssists: Brandon Hagel, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 19:10TBLMichael EyssimontGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 2:05BOSMason LohreiAssists: Andrew Peeke, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 18:28TBLBrandon HagelENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–3
- P3 19:24TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 8:56BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:41BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:49BOSNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 7:47TBLBrandon Hagel: Interference2 min
- P2 7:47BOSPavel Zacha: Embellishment2 min
- P2 13:16TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min
- P3 19:17BOSMason Lohrei: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:57TBLEmil Lilleberg: Cross checking5 min
- P3 19:57TBLEmil Lilleberg: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:57BOSMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:57TBLEmil Lilleberg: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00BOSJustin Brazeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BOSJustin Brazeau: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – Lindholm11:02
xG 0.87–0.38 (70%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie12:43
xG 0.67–0.48 (58%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher6:08
xG 0.27–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Wahlstrom6:39
xG 0.42–0.26 (61%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPeeke – Lohrei14:16
xG 0.89–0.64 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Zadorov – McAvoy17:13
xG 0.52–0.66 (44%)attempts 16–18goals 0–0
- Carlo – Wotherspoon12:05
xG 0.39–0.96 (29%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Glendening – Girgensons4:37
xG 0.44–0.03 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Hagel – Geekie9:15
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Cirelli – Hagel3:36
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point9:21
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Perbix2:08
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 1–0
- Hedman – Raddysh12:39
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Hedman – Lilleberg2:15
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).