Sun, Jan 12, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 02 | 27 | 310 | 519 |
| PIT | 114 | 010 | 19 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:20PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 6:54TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Emil Lilleberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 16:04TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 2:17PITKevin HayesPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 16:57TBLNikita KucherovGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 18:48TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–2
- P3 19:39TBLNick PaulENAssists: Jake Guentzel, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:03TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:55PITJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min
- P2 4:55TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:11TBLDarren Raddysh: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:17TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel6:35
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Paul – Eyssimont6:00
xG 0.07–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point7:11
xG 0.46–0.54 (46%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Guentzel – Point – Hagel2:31
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak2:07
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hedman – Perbix3:28
xG 0.21–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Raddysh – Lilleberg2:43
xG 0.11–0.07 (63%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell15:30
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Hayes – Beauvillier – Puljujarvi7:59
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Nieto – Acciari – Lizotte5:58
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Glass – Tomasino – O'Connor10:16
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson19:59
xG 0.96–0.49 (66%)attempts 25–23goals 1–0
- Joseph – Pickering13:20
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk14:12
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).