Sat, Jan 18, 2025·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 014 | 112 | 013 | 139 |
| TBL | 16 | 410 | 06 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02TBLBrayden PointAssists: Emil Lilleberg, Nick Perbix · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 0:16TBLJake GuentzelPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 1:50TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 3:58TBLMitchell ChaffeeAssists: Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P2 14:12DETLucas RaymondPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 15:06TBLDarren RaddyshPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 6:51TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P1 17:56TBLMitchell Chaffee: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:04DETMarco Kasper: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:24TBLMichael Eyssimont: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:16TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:32DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:11TBLMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:55TBLMitchell Chaffee: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:15DETMarco Kasper: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:15DETErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:15TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat9:47
xG 0.56–0.42 (57%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Fischer – Rasmussen – Veleno9:08
xG 0.32–0.20 (61%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren9:54
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Larkin – Raymond – Kasper9:24
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson13:08
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider14:32
xG 0.87–0.69 (56%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Johansson – Edvinsson13:06
xG 0.33–0.49 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Cirelli – Hagel9:31
xG 0.58–0.48 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point11:50
xG 0.58–0.55 (52%)attempts 10–16goals 2–0
- Girgensons – Eyssimont – Geekie8:59
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Glendening – Chaffee6:26
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 1–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Perbix – Lilleberg13:19
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Crozier12:10
xG 0.46–0.59 (44%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh13:43
xG 0.44–0.84 (35%)attempts 8–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).