Mon, Jan 20, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 112 | 212 | 330 |
| TOR | 111 | 28 | 29 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 13:45TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Morgan Rielly, Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 16:07TBLNick PaulAssists: Darren Raddysh, Brayden Point · Tip-in, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:37TORMatthew KniesAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 8:07TBLDarren RaddyshAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 10:09TORMatthew KniesPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Bobby McMann · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 12:05TBLNick PaulPPAssists: Brandon Hagel, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 18:55TORMitch MarnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.39 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P3 1:15TORPontus Holmberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:21TBLEmil Lilleberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:02TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Holmberg won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGuentzel – Paul – Point7:53
xG 0.23–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Guentzel – Point6:07
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel12:21
xG 0.39–0.38 (50%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Paul – Cirelli – Hagel4:56
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Raddysh18:22
xG 0.87–0.82 (51%)attempts 23–13goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Crozier16:43
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
- Perbix – Lilleberg11:19
xG 0.25–0.36 (40%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies13:53
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Domi – Robertson – Minten8:38
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Lorentz – Kampf – Dewar4:42
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nylander – Kampf – McMann3:25
xG 0.16–0.19 (45%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Tanev18:55
xG 0.83–0.55 (60%)attempts 18–20goals 2–1
- Timmins – Benoit11:03
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly2:15
xG 0.15–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).