Mon, Jan 20, 2025·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 61% of the time.
52%
9%
9%
30%
TOR winsTBL wins
Tampa Bay Lightning
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Nikita KucherovRW · #86 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3 | 5 | 25:06 | 0.28 | 38.8% | +12.4 |
 Anthony CirelliC · #71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 2 | 23:47 | 0.41 | 40.7% | 0.0 |
 Darren RaddyshD · #43 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 23:21 | 0.14 | 45.8% | +25.9 |
 Victor HedmanD · #77 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 6 | 23:04 | 0.26 | 44.0% | +23.1 |
 Brandon HagelLW · #38 | 0 | 1 | 1 | −3 | 1 | 22:57 | 0.27 | 39.3% | +10.7 |
 Ryan McDonaghD · #27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −2 | 1 | 20:43 | 0.05 | 34.6% | 0.0 |
 Jake GuentzelC · #59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20:26 | 0.06 | 52.2% | 0.0 |
 Brayden PointC · #21 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19:53 | 0.12 | 54.1% | +13.5 |
 Nick PaulLW · #20 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 18:24 | 0.52 | 54.2% | +24.2 |
 Max CrozierD · #65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 18:11 | 0.03 | 41.5% | 0.0 |
 Emil LillebergD · #78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 15:29 | 0.02 | 38.1% | 0.0 |
 Nick PerbixD · #48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 14:07 | 0.01 | 44.2% | 0.0 |
 Mitchell ChaffeeRW · #41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:57 | 0.27 | 44.3% | 0.0 |
 Zemgus GirgensonsC · #28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:23 | 0.17 | 38.4% | 0.0 |
 Conor GeekieC · #14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 0 | 8:56 | 0.00 | 30.2% | 0.0 |
 Luke GlendeningC · #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8:21 | 0.02 | 26.0% | 0.0 |
 Michael EyssimontC · #23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:57 | 0.11 | 32.4% | 0.0 |
 Cam AtkinsonRW · #13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:59 | 0.00 | 32.8% | 0.0 |
 Jonas Johansson#31 | L | 27 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 2.38 | −1.6 | 58:11 |
Toronto Maple Leafs
Official boxscore lines, plus individual xG, on-ice expected-goals share at 5-on-5 and win probability added (percentage points).
 Chris TanevD · #8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 24:21 | 0.01 | 53.2% | 0.0 |
 Oliver Ekman-LarssonD · #95 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 1 | 23:37 | 0.03 | 66.6% | +10.1 |
 Jake McCabeD · #22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 1 | 22:45 | 0.02 | 38.1% | 0.0 |
 Mitch MarnerRW · #16 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 2 | 22:13 | 0.54 | 67.7% | +28.6 |
 Auston MatthewsC · #34 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 5 | 21:56 | 0.25 | 73.8% | +23.7 |
 William NylanderRW · #88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 | 20:55 | 0.24 | 43.4% | +13.6 |
 Morgan RiellyD · #44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 20:45 | 0.13 | 51.5% | +13.6 |
 Matthew KniesLW · #23 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 19:49 | 0.52 | 66.5% | +34.0 |
 Bobby McMannC · #74 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 19:05 | 0.68 | 37.0% | +10.3 |
 David KampfC · #64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0.13 | 56.9% | 0.0 |
 Simon BenoitD · #2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:59 | 0.06 | 76.4% | 0.0 |
 Pontus HolmbergRW · #29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:32 | 0.21 | 41.8% | 0.0 |
 Conor TimminsD · #25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13:08 | 0.06 | 75.8% | 0.0 |
 Max DomiC · #11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 2 | 11:21 | 0.08 | 60.6% | 0.0 |
 Fraser MintenC · #39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 11:07 | 0.12 | 57.3% | 0.0 |
 Nick RobertsonLW · #89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | −1 | 1 | 10:45 | 0.07 | 65.1% | 0.0 |
 Steven LorentzC · #18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 8:28 | 0.00 | 68.2% | +13.6 |
 Connor DewarC · #24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5:10 | 0.18 | 63.1% | 0.0 |
 Joseph Woll#60 | W | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 2.73 | −0.3 | 60:00 |