Sat, Jan 25, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Ottawa Senators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 012 | 011 | 129 |
| OTT | 112 | 05 | 16 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46TORBobby McMannAssists: Mitch Marner, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 10:43OTTTim StützlePPAssists: Jake Sanderson, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 10:47OTTShane PintoGWGAssists: Matthew Highmore, Thomas Chabot · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:37TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:44TORMax Domi: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:44OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:37TORPontus Holmberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:28OTTRidly Greig: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Lorentz – Holmberg2:37
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Marner – Matthews – McMann14:21
xG 0.74–0.24 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Domi – Nylander – Holmberg8:55
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Kampf – Robertson5:53
xG 0.27–0.11 (70%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Tanev15:01
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Rielly – Myers2:17
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Rielly – McCabe15:08
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestHighmore – Gaudette – Ostapchuk2:06
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Amadio – Highmore – Pinto7:43
xG 0.16–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig3:33
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Perron – Tkachuk – Stützle7:44
xG 0.31–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub17:43
xG 0.58–0.22 (72%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chabot18:26
xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Kleven – Matinpalo10:34
xG 0.21–0.92 (18%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).